All values are in US dollars. October 6, 2026 is the historical financial reference date. The following calculations use different assumptions and review dates.
November 2, 2026 · fixed investment plan
The original workbook holds investment policy fixed. Prices and throughput evolve with each new hardware generation. At the same time its share of billable capacity changes. Each case uses its own costs, discount rate and other inputs.
| Case | Annual throughput gain | Annual unit price change | 2035 billable share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 12% | −28% | 70% |
| Base | 30% | −22% | 88% |
| Bull | 55% | −27% | 92% |
The lower per-share result includes adverse fee, senior claim and share-count assumptions. The upper result uses the known economic share subtotal and omits those incremental stresses. The residual equity floor is zero. The original Bear and Base lose money under the fixed plan. A company able to defer equipment orders might take a different path.
| Case | Enterprise value ($bn) | Equity before extra claims ($bn) | Diagnostic ($/share) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | −352.7 | −355.6 | 0–0 |
| Base | −50.5 | −53.5 | 0–0 |
| Bull | 1,959.0 | 1,954.6 | 4,625–6,331 |
Passing through all efficiency savings to customers lowers Bull’s range to $1,627–$2,230. With 70% billability in 2035 as well, it falls to $1,138–$1,561. No probabilities were assigned. Inconsistent cost treatment between the purchase decision and company cash flows, plus incomplete financing and terminal integration, prevented a rational-policy fair value release.
Henry Research, November 2 capital policy and valuation robustness review. Workbook: Nebius Independent Model 2026, “Capital Policy Review” A21:J34, “GPU Generations” B11:E13 and “Provisional Equity” B23:B48.November 6 review · Base financing example
This later model applies November 4 assumptions to the October 6 financial reference. It computes and discounts cash paid to the existing shareholder group. Its opening 375 million economic shares are an input to the model. The equity offers and distributions are hypothetical.
| Same modeled buildout | $200 issue price | $50 issue price |
|---|---|---|
| Gross equity needed | $25.974bn | $25.974bn |
| New shares | 129.869m | 519.474m |
| Total shares | 504.869m | 894.474m |
| Opening group’s stake | 74.28% | 41.92% |
| PV of payouts / opening share | $331.60 | $187.16 |
Subscriptions run from Q2 2027 through Q1 2031. New shares equal gross subscriptions divided by subscription price. At $200 per new share, 375m ÷ 504.869m = 74.28% retained.
In the quarter starting July 1, 2033, the model distributes $776.643m to equity. At the $200 issue price, $576.865m goes to opening holders and $199.778m goes to the later equity subscribers. One opening share receives $576.865m ÷ 375m = $1.5383. The $331.60 value discounts the full stream of future distributions. The $1.54 is one quarter’s undiscounted payout.
Henry Research, “WORKING-ISSUANCE-selected-results,” issuanceWaterfall. “WORKING-ISSUANCE-selected-ledger,” holder.ownershipTimeline, oldHolderPayouts and equity subscribers’ payouts at quarter index 27. November 6 review accepted the bounded model calculation. Actual market access and the returns new investors would require remain uncertain.November 6, 2026 · conditional Bull illustration
The upper Bull pricing test models 8.07 GW of average available IT capacity in 2035. With $23.69m of annual owned fees per available MW, about 8,070 MW × $23.69m/MW gives about $191bn of annual fees. The unrounded model reports $191.23bn. Fees from partners sit outside this figure.
This test uses premium own-cloud pricing, 95% annual renewal-price retention and hypothetical financing. With equity issued at $200 it requires $37.25bn of gross equity and $10.00bn of gross new debt. Opening holders retain 66.81% and the modeled value is $380.75 per existing share. The Base and Bull pricing methodologies differ. They do not form matched endpoints of one range.
Henry Research, “Bull revenue per MW and conditional shareholder value,” November 6, 2026. Restored December commercial calibration, upper price schedule, $200 equity issuance. The archived briefing’s November 3 status and November 2 fixed-plan diagnostics predate this test.