The Nebius Story

CompTek’s September 23 announcement listed a September 25 demonstration at stand D17 at Softool. The launch and venue are documented; the drawing reconstructs the booth and uses anonymous figures.

The agreement was signed February 4 and announced February 5. Management dates the closings May 17 and July 12. Completion was announced July 15. The audit report uses May 16 when describing the divested subsidiary. Daily accounting cutoff remains unresolved.

At closing, retained operations included Nebius AI, Toloka AI, Avride and TripleTen, plus the Finnish data center and minority investments. By the 2025 Form 20-F, the group reported stakes in Toloka and ClickHouse. Toloka was deconsolidated in May 2025.

Training builds or adapts a model. Inference runs it on a request. A token is a piece of input or output. The same request can cost different amounts to serve depending on hardware, batching and response time.

The August 2026 letter’s footprint included New Jersey, Missouri and Pennsylvania at different stages. A location on that map says little by itself about when a customer can use it.

Networks and storage keep accelerators supplied with data. Cloud software allocates the cluster. Managed inference adds deployment and ongoing service. Each layer adds work for Nebius and changes what the customer buys.

Nebius identifies broad cloud platforms and specialist providers as competitors. Large customers can also operate their own infrastructure. These examples establish alternatives without estimating market share.

A dedicated reservation can pay for available capacity even when the customer uses less of it. Merchant revenue depends on paid demand. Managed service adds the cost of meeting the customer’s response and reliability requirements.

The issuer defines contracted, connected and active power. Installed equipment can still await commissioning. The November 6 Bull test assumes 8.07 GW of average available capacity in 2035 and $23.69m of annual owned fees per available MW, about $191bn in owned fees. Premium pricing and substantial financing are assumptions.

The August letter reported delivery of all Microsoft tranches. Service credits and termination rights remain material. For Meta’s initial order, Item 10 says the first delivery was in November 2025, while Note 2 says December. The precise month remains unresolved.

USD. Group and AI cloud revenue cover the three months ended June 30. The annualized run rate multiplies June AI cloud revenue by twelve. Collections, capital spending and replacement cash follow different schedules.

Compare the whole cohort on dated cash flows. Allocate power, network and support costs once. Site and network obligations can survive a cancelled order. A feasible decision to wait or redeploy depends on those obligations and any customer commitments.

October 6 valuation date, November 4 assumptions, November 6 review. The Base case models the secured loan at 6.47% (3.97% Term SOFR assumption plus a 2.50% spread) and assumes a 9% fixed coupon on future unsecured debt. Under $200 issuance, the present value of all modeled payouts is $331.60 per original share. At $50 issuance it falls to $187.16.

Look for completed workloads at a lower full cash cost, renewal prices after discounts, and reliable acceptance and collection across successive projects. These are investment tests. The company’s product description alone cannot establish the returns.

October 6, 2026 valuation baseline. Discount rates, funding, utilization and other inputs also vary. Negative underlying equity was floored at zero. These were unweighted diagnostics. On November 3 the briefing still reported company fair value unavailable.

In the same November 2 study, reducing 2035 billability to 70% alongside full pass-through lowered the upper diagnostic to $1,561. The fleet plan remained fixed. The numbers measure sensitivity and carry no probability.

For partnerships, examine the net fee after revenue sharing and any guarantees. For managed inference, examine repeat paid use after support and compute costs. Both affect cash available for reinvestment.

Check acceptance dates against service starts and cash receipts. Compare achieved renewal prices with prior terms for comparable equipment. Recalculate dilution from the dollars actually raised and the issue price.

The November 3, 2026 briefing had no released company fair value. The later Base and Bull tests are conditional and use different pricing methods. Publisher holdings and conflicts disclosure was pending in the archived briefing.